Pick any two teams. Probabilities derived from Poisson goal model on Elo ratings.
80% likely range from a Poisson model on the expected goals above.
Each team’s xG comes from a Poisson model fit to historical FIFA World Cup scoring rates, adjusted by the opponent’s defensive strength and current Elo.
Smallest contiguous range of goals that covers at least 80% probability around the mode of the Poisson distribution.
P(opponent scores 0) from the Poisson, then scaled by a calibration multiplier learned from past World Cup matches.
(1 − P(A=0)) × (1 − P(B=0)) assuming independent attacks, calibrated against historical BTTS frequency.
Calibrated on every FIFA World Cup match 1930–2022. Accuracy is the share of matches where the model’s ≥50% call was correct; coverage is the share where the actual total landed inside the predicted 80% range.